By Thomas Goetz

Patrick Kennedy’s job is to build apartment buildings. Not the ones that loom in the skyline or outrage neighbors, but those that blend in with existing buildings — four or five stories, with 10 to 15 units. The ones that families move into, or that students can afford to rent, or that empty-nesters downsize to. The owner of Panoramic Interests has built dozens of these buildings in Berkeley and San Francisco over the years. Kennedy has several projects underway. But it’s harder than it has ever been to make a project pencil out. 

“Two-thirds of the city has these narrow lots that are ideal for infill, the kind of human-scale rowhouses and small apartment buildings that define San Francisco’s most desirable neighborhoods,” says Peter Hirshberg, executive director of City Science Lab San Francisco, a civic innovation nonprofit. A few tweaks to housing rules here and there, Hirshberg believes, could change the underlying economics and create a brighter housing future.

Making the math work for infill development would create what’s called missing-middle housing: buildings with two to 20 units that fit comfortably into lower-density neighborhoods.

City Science Lab San Francisco estimates that such infill housing could yield 25,000 or more units in the next few years — and that’s a conservative estimate. While that number alone wouldn’t solve the crisis, it would reflect a tremendous increase in housing construction, an upsurge that could revitalize neighborhoods and the city’s economy. And it would be about 10 times the 2,700 units built in San Francisco last year.